hurricanemaxi
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 Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:49 pm Post subject: Global Poll Predicts U.S. Economy Rebounding |
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The U.S. receives its highest rating from international investors in more than two years on new optimism that the world’s largest economy will weather the financial crisis in Europe and avoid a recession in 2012, according to a Bloomberg poll.
More than two in five of those surveyed -- 41 percent -- identify the U.S. as among the markets that will perform best over the next year. That’s up from less than one in three who felt that way in September and is the biggest percentage for the U.S. since the survey began in October 2009. It’s also almost double that of the next two top-rated markets, Brazil and China, according to the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll conducted Dec. 5-6 of 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers.
The U.S. “may not be in the best shape ever, but compared to others it should outperform,” Alexis Laming, a poll respondent and associate director for Arab Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. in Geneva, says in an e-mail. It has “good growth potential for next year.”
Less than a quarter of investors say they expect the U.S. to relapse into recession within the next year, according to the poll. In September, half those surveyed forecast a U.S. economic contraction within that time frame.
U.S. respondents are more optimistic about the American market than their counterparts overseas: More than half pick it as a best-performing market for 2012 compared with a third of non-U.S. investors who do the same.
Treasuries Safest
Investors also give a vote of confidence in the U.S. Treasury market. Seven in 10 say Treasuries will remain the safest investment for at least the next year, while 47 percent say they anticipate the market will have that distinction for at least the next three years.
European investors are the most skeptical about U.S. government bonds: Almost 40 percent say the securities aren’t the safest investment now.
The poll follows the release of a series of stronger-than- forecast economic statistics in the U.S. The unemployment rate fell last month to 8.6 percent, its lowest level since March 2009, while manufacturers reported that their business expanded in November at its fastest pace in five months. Still, the jobless number compares with the 5.0 percent rate at the start of the last recession in December 2007.
Global Prospects Better
The prospects for the global economy also are improving, though not as much as for the U.S., according to the poll. One in three investors -- 33 percent -- say they expect the world economy to fall into recession within the next year, down 10 percentage points from September.
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